Fittingly, an unprecedented 2020 NFL season remained unsettled until the 256th and final regular-season game. Washington's win on Sunday night clinched the NFC East division title (with a losing record, no less) and locked in the 2020 playoff field.
The league expanded its postseason to 14 teams this season, meaning only the No. 1 seeds -- the Chiefs in the AFC and the Packers in the NFC -- will get first-round byes. The other 12 teams will compete in a six-game wild-card weekend that opens in just six days.
Our playoff primer previews those matchups and takes a broader look at what each team must do to reach Super Bowl LV next month in Tampa, Florida, along with their updated chances via Football Power Index (FPI). Odds and game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
Sporting News' predictions for the 2020 NFL season are here. Check out our complete set of projections for the regular season standings and playoff matchups all the way through Super Bowl 55. CBS Sports provides the latest picks, news and analysis for Super Bowl LV. The Super Bowl will be played on February 7, 2021 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.
After the Super Bowl, we will look back and see whose bracket was most accurate. In terms of winning the super bowl, we have the Packers and the Chiefs both at 33% chance. There's a reason why both Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are frontrunners for the MVP award. Super Bowl LV will be the 55th Super Bowl National Football League championship game. Super Bowl Sunday for the 2020 NFL season will be held on February 7th, 2021 and will decide the league. Follow all the excitement of the NFL playoffs and put your knowledge to the test by playing the Super Bowl Challenge! Your bracket for the NFL playoffs. Tickets to the 2020 games in.
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Colts
3. Steelers vs. 6. Browns
4. Titans vs. 5. Ravens
NFC:
1. Packers
2. Saints vs. 7. Bears
3. Seahawks vs. 6. Rams
4. Washington vs. 5. Buccaneers
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Super Bowl odds: +180
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 51.1%
Reason for hope: Let's not dig too deep here. By some measures, quarterback Patrick Mahomes played better in 2020 than he did in either his 2018 MVP year or in leading the Chiefs to Super Bowl LIV last season. He set career highs in QBR (82.7), yards per game (316) and completion percentage (66.3%). Quarterbacks drive the playoffs, and no one in the AFC has a better one than the Chiefs.
Reason for concern: The Chiefs have struggled to put teams away in the second half, especially since a Week 8 thrashing of the Jets. Their ensuing seven games were all victories, but they have come by an average of 3.7 points, and none has been by more than six. Two required fourth-quarter comebacks. An optimist would argue the Chiefs are battle-tested for the kind of close games they could encounter in the postseason. On the other hand, top teams that struggle to put opponents away face a heightened risk of a postseason upset.
X factor: Running back Le'Veon Bell. Rookie starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with hip and ankle injuries, but even if he were not, Bell's veteran presence and flexibility would still be a significant boon for a playoff run. He has been used relatively sparingly since joining the Chiefs in Week 7, getting fewer than 10 touches in seven of nine games. But it wouldn't be shocking to see him and the Chiefs shift into a higher gear in the postseason.
First game: The Chiefs are the only AFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Colts.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 17.1%
Reason for hope: The Bills are rolling. After losing to the Chiefs in Week 6, they launched into a two-month run of near-perfect football. Their only loss during that period came after a Hail Mary by the Cardinals in Week 10. And while much of the public focused on the Chiefs, Packers and other front-running teams, the Bills led the league in scoring (30.7 points per game) between Weeks 7 and 16 as quarterback Josh Allen emerged as an MVP candidate. Strong regular-season performances don't always portend a long postseason run, but the Bills enter the playoffs knowing their winning formula -- and confident that it works.
Reason for concern: It was only a year ago that the Bills suffered the kind of playoff loss that can sting a franchise for years. After taking a 16-0 lead over the Texans, the Bills collapsed and lost 22-19 in overtime. The 2020 team appears far less capable of such a flop, but it would be naïve to think it won't be a lingering thought as the Bills prepare for their wild-card round game.
X factor: Wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The arrival of Diggs has factored into the Bills' success every bit as much as Allen's improvement, and it was a key reason Allen reached new heights in the first place. His presence will be particularly valuable in the playoffs, where he has already demonstrated the kind of competitiveness and nerve to make game-changing plays in the highest-pressure moments. (See: Minneapolis Miracle in the 2017 playoffs.) If the Bills need a play to win a game, they can count on Diggs helping Allen to get it done.
First game: The Bills will face the seventh-seeded Colts in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). They have a lot of advantages here, including playing in front of about 6,700 fans who can't wait to see a home playoff game. But this game could hinge on whether the Bills' defense, which ranked in the bottom third in rushing yards per attempt this season, can check the Colts' Jonathan Taylor. The Bills are -6.5 favorites.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +2000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 10.8%
Reason for hope: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has made 21 playoff starts, and the departure of Tom Brady to the NFC makes him the dean of AFC playoff quarterbacks. Wherever you stand on his arm strength and effectiveness, he'll bring a level of understanding that no other AFC team will have the benefit of having. The next-most experienced AFC quarterback is the Colts' Philip Rivers. That should bring some level of advantage to the Steelers.
Reason for concern: The Steelers have played one half of playoff-caliber football since the start of December. That came in the second half of their Week 16 victory over the Colts, when they overcame a 24-7 deficit to win 28-24. Otherwise, they barely beat a severely undermanned Ravens team in Week 12 and lost three consecutive game before ending with Sunday's meaningless matchup (for them) against the Browns. That's pretty much the opposite of how you would want to enter the postseason, in part because of the poor play and largely because of the deficiencies it exposed with Roethlisberger and the passing game in general.
X factor: Outside linebacker T.J. Watt. If there's any AFC defensive player who could dominate a playoff game, it's Watt. He not only led the league with 15 sacks this season but also ESPN's pass rush win rate (27.6%). He also ranks fourth in passes batted down at the line of scrimmage (five). In other words, he has been one of the NFL's most difficult players to block and one of its most consistent disruptors all season. Given the opportunity, Watt could wreck a playoff team on his own.
First game: The Steelers will face the sixth-seeded Browns in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). The Steelers beat the Browns by 31 points in the teams' first matchup this season, and their backups played the Browns pretty tough in Week 17. So despite the general dour nature of the past month in Pittsburgh, the Steelers should enter the playoffs with a lot of confidence about their wild-card matchup. The Steelers are -3.5 favorites.
4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +2800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 3.7%
Reason for hope: The Titans can follow the same approach that pushed them to the 2019 AFC Championship Game. They can pursue an early lead with the passing game -- which now boasts two big-play receivers in A.J. Brown and Corey Davis -- and then use tailback Derrick Henry to hold possession and maintain that lead. The Titans ranked among the NFL's top five teams in scoring for most of the season using a similar method.
Reason for concern: The pass defense stands out. The Titans finished the season ranked among the NFL's worst five teams in opposing QBR and were by far the worst of any playoff team. The biggest problem? They ranked at the bottom of the league in sacks for much of the season. If playoff-caliber quarterbacks are getting the ball off consistently and from a relatively clean pocket, it's going to be tough to win many games. The Titans will have to figure out a way to enhance their pass rush to make another playoff run.
X factor: Cornerback Malcolm Butler. It's not easy playing in the back end when the pass rush is largely failing to get home. But Butler is a player who could compensate, if not through tight coverage then through big plays. He led the team in interceptions and is the most experienced playoff defender on the roster. A few big plays can go a long way.
First game: The Titans will face the fifth-seeded Ravens in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). Can the Titans knock the Ravens from the playoffs for the second consecutive year? Perhaps. But we should definitely prepare for a ton of points. The Titans are averaging 34.6 points in their past seven games, and the Ravens are averaging 37.2 in their past five. The Titans are +4.5 underdogs.
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +1100
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 13.6%
Reason for hope: The Ravens have put it all together here in the final stretch, exactly what you would want to see heading into the postseason. In closing out the regular season with a five-game winning streak, coinciding with quarterback Lamar Jackson's return from the reserve/COVID-19 list, they've rediscovered the offensive formula that pushed them to the AFC's top seed in 2019. No one in the NFL has scored more points since Week 13, and only one team has scored more in the first quarter. Getting an early scoring advantage has been crucial to the Ravens' success throughout the Jackson era, and it rescued their 2020 season.
Reason for concern: It's still not clear if the Ravens can come back from an early deficit, the scenario that spelled their 2019 elimination to the Titans.
X factor: Kicker Justin Tucker. The Ravens' kicker will forever be their secret weapon, or perhaps their most unique weapon. It's an incredible end-game advantage for the Ravens to know that if they can just get him within 60 yards of the uprights, they have a genuine chance to win. The most recent example came in Week 14, when he drilled a 55-yard field goal to beat the Browns with 2 seconds left.
First game: The Ravens will face the fourth-seeded Titans in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). This game will match the NFL's top rushing team (Baltimore) against the NFL's rushing leader (Titans' Derrick Henry). According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it will be only the fifth such matchup in the Super Bowl era. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the team with the rushing leader has won the previous four. The Ravens are -4.5 favorites.
6. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +5000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.5%
Reason for hope: The Browns have a really well-rounded offense. Their passing and running games ranked in the NFL's top 10 in terms of QBR and yards per carry, respectively. That happens only when you have a really competent offensive line and plenty of playmakers. While the Browns, like most teams, would prefer to play with a lead, they're not as reliant on their running game as external perceptions might suggest.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Baker Mayfield is a volatile player and a playoff unknown. He has made unquestioned progress under coach Kevin Stefanski this season, but he hasn't been asked to carry the team as quarterbacks often need to in the playoffs. The Browns' defense allowed at least 30 points in seven games this season. Mayfield might well be ready for the challenge if the Browns get into a postseason shootout, but it's fair to wait until he performs under that kind of pressure before feeling confident in it.
X factor: Stefanski. In his first season with the Browns, Stefanski has done more than redirect Mayfield's career and offer up some clever playcalling and game plans. He has extended a canopy of calm around the most dysfunctional organization in the league. The Browns would be excused for overexcitement as they enter their first postseason since 2002, but Stefanski's presence gives them a good chance to meet the moment.
First game: The Browns will face the third-seeded Steelers in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). Back when the Browns were a consistent winner, their rivalry with the Steelers was legendary. The Steelers won by 31 points in Week 6, and their backups played the Browns tough in Week 17. The sides have met only twice in the postseason, with the Steelers winning both games, but there won't be a lot of film study needed for this game. The Browns are +3.5 underdogs.
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +3500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 2.2%
Reason for hope: Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a find, both as a runner and a receiver. His 45-yard playoff-clinching touchdown run in Week 17 was just the latest example of his value to this team. Not only did he give the Colts a commanding lead, but he helped them protect it and finished with 253 rushing yards. Taylor is young and presumably prepared for heavy postseason work.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Philip Rivers has mostly behaved himself this season, cutting his interception total in half from last season. But as good as he has been in 2020, do you trust him to not to give playoff opponents a few extra possessions and/or scuttle a few scoring drives? This will be in the back of many minds when the Colts take the field Saturday.
X factor: Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. One of the most impactful offseason acquisitions across the league, Buckner has proved to be an elite run-stopper and a consistent interior pass-rusher. When you think about players who could dominate a postseason game and single-handedly make the kind of plays that put a team over the hump, Buckner is the likeliest candidate for the Colts.
First game: The Colts will face the second-seed Bills in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). It's going to be wild to see if the Colts' defense can slow down the Bills' offense, which has been the league's most dominant in the second half of the season. The Colts' pass defense ranked among the NFL's top 10, based on QBR, for the majority of the season. The Colts are +6.5 underdogs.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 42.2%
Reason for hope: Not only do they have the best player in football this season -- quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- on their roster, but the Packers also have the most remarkable quarterback-receiver connection in the game. Rodgers completes one pass to wide receiver Davante Adams for roughly every four routes that Adams runs, by far the highest rate for any NFL receiver. That helps illustrate not only how well he gets open, but how often Rodgers throws him open. Good luck stopping them in the playoffs.
Reason for concern: The season-ending knee injury to All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is devastating and self-explanatory as a concern. So we should also note that the Packers' defense has often failed them in the playoffs during the Rodgers era, and it could be their downfall in 2020 as well. Through Week 16, their defensive QBR (66.1) and yards allowed per rush (4.64) each ranked No. 24 in the league, lower than all but one playoff team. Rodgers is capable of winning a shootout, but that hasn't been a formula for success in the Packers' recent forays into the postseason.
X factor: Running back Aaron Jones. Although he hasn't scored nearly as often as he did during his 16-touchdown performance in 2019, Jones remains a game-changing player who helps the Packers extend drives and keep their defense off the field. He has had a few injury nicks but should be ready for a normal workload in the playoffs.
First game: The Packers are the only NFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be Washington, the Buccaneers, the Rams or the Bears.
2. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.2%
Reason for hope: The Saints have one of the NFL's most well-rounded teams, and they've proved it after losing quarterback Drew Brees to injury for the second consecutive season. After going 5-0 with backup Teddy Bridgewater last season, they went 3-1 with backup Taysom Hill in 2020. When a team goes 8-1 without its starting quarterback, and the backup isn't a budding superstar, you sit up and take notice about the strength of the roster and coaching staff.
Reason for concern: The Saints have had some terrible luck in the playoffs over the past three years. The Minneapolis Miracle ended their 2017 season, and the pass interference no-call stopped their 2018 run. Last season, they came out flat against the Vikings in the wild-card round and lost. No team has a better regular-season winning percentage since the start of that run than the Saints, but the recent history of poor postseason outcomes must be considered.
X factor: Wide receiver Michael Thomas. It has been a really weird season for the NFL's 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, from injuries to a disciplinary benching. In all, he played in only seven games and finished with a career-low 40 catches without a single touchdown. But the Saints believe he will be close to 100 percent healthy for their first playoff game, and it's tough to overestimate the impact of getting a fresh All-Pro receiver back on the field.
First game: The Saints will face the seventh-seeded Bears in the wild-card round (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS). The Saints spent the majority of the season ranked among the NFL's top teams in forcing turnovers. They'll have ample opportunities playing against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who tends to force the ball when he is in pressure situations. The Saints are -8.5 favorites.
3. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +1200
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8.9%
Reason for hope: Despite a perception that they were collapsing after a 5-0 start, the Seahawks' big picture never dramatically changed. They entered Week 17 on a 5-1 run and move into the playoffs as one of NFC teams with the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl. And in a season when NFL road teams had the highest winning percentage in decades, the Seahawks managed to go 7-1 at Lumen Field -- despite not having paid attendance for a single game this season.
Reason for concern: Among the major factors in the Seahawks' cooldown was a surprising run of mistakes from quarterback Russell Wilson. Since Week 7, he ranked among the league's five most likely players to commit a turnover. As a testament to his odd season, Wilson finished his ninth NFL season with career highs in touchdown passes and interceptions. Suffice it to say, the Seahawks need him at his best to make a deep playoff run.
X factor: Safety Jamal Adams. The Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for finding an out-of-the-box way for Adams to be an elite player in their scheme. Most teams blitz their safeties from time to time, but the Seahawks sent Adams enough that he set a record for most sacks in a season by a defensive back. It obviously suits his skill set and will be a factor that postseason opponents must, at the very least, spend unique time accounting for as they form their game plans.
First game: The Seahawks will face the sixth-seeded Rams in the wild-card round (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox). Much of the pregame attention will be on whether Rams quarterback Jared Goff starts. But when the game begins, one of the keys will be how well Wilson handles the Rams' pass rush. He has handled pressure well this season, throwing 18 touchdown passes when under duress -- six more than any other quarterback has thrown since ESPN Stats & Information began tracking it in 2009. The Seahawks are -4.5 favorites.
4. Washington Football Team (7-9)
Super Bowl odds: +8000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.1%
Reason for hope: Really, it's the front four, with Chase Young, Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen making it difficult for opponents to maintain a clean pocket. A big part of the formula for a playoff run is disruptive line play, and Washington is among the most well-equipped in the league. Among other things, it ranked in the NFL's top 10 in contact against opposing quarterbacks. Tom Brady -- whom Washington will see on Saturday -- isn't the only quarterback who can get a little skittish if he's hit a bunch in the pocket.
Reason for concern: Despite all that, Washington was a seven-win team that beat only one team with a winning record: the Steelers in Week 13. Worse, it seems inordinately reliant on quarterback Alex Smith, whose mere presence in the lineup seems a miracle. There is just such a small margin of error for this team.
X factor: Wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Washington is the lowest-scoring team in the playoffs. McLaurin is one of the few big playmakers on its roster, and he could push it toward an upset if he can steal a few scores.
First game: Washington will face the fifth-seeded Buccaneers in the wild-card round (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). This game appears to be a mismatch on paper. But Washington is built precisely like some of the teams that have given Brady trouble in his career. The front four is the strength of the team, and we all know if you hit Brady a few times early, the game can be much different. Washington is a +7.5 underdog.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +1100
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 15.7%
Reason for hope: Their quarterback has guided his teams to 30 playoff wins in his career, nearly twice as many as any other QB in NFL history. Tom Brady has also won six Super Bowls. That experience seems pretty important for a franchise that is making its first playoff appearance in 13 years and doesn't have much institutional knowledge. And by the way, Brady closed out the regular season on a high note. During the Buccaneers' 3-0 performance in Weeks 14-16, he ranked fourth in the league in QBR (84.2) and first in passing yards (934). He also tied for first with eight touchdown passes.
Reason for concern: More often than not, the Buccaneers' defense has been the leverage point between winning and losing this season. Through 16 weeks, it ranked No. 7 in the NFL by allowing 21.9 points per game. But that broke down to an average of 29.2 points per game in losses and 18.2 points per game in victories. Which defense will show up in the playoffs?
X factor: Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. The Buccaneers' defense is stacked with veterans who have been around the block, including linebacker Lavonte David and defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston. But if anyone can muster the vitality to take over a playoff game or make the handful of big plays that can influence the outcome, it's Pierre-Paul. He has been a pass-rushing, fumble-causing, interception-grabbing machine this season.
First game: The Buccaneers will face fourth-seeded Washington in the wild-card round (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). Brady will have to deal with the type of defense that has given him fits in previous trips to the playoffs. Washington's defensive front has a chance to knock him off balance. The Bucs are -7.5 favorites.
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Super Bowl odds: +2800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.0%
Reason for hope: The Rams' defense has carried them for much of the season and is difficult to attack, with the league's most unblockable player up front (defensive tackle Aaron Donald) and one of its few shutdown corners in the back end (Jalen Ramsey). The Rams had a top-three defense against both the run and pass, based on yards allowed per rush and QBR, respectively. You know the old saying about defense winning championships.
Reason for concern: Even if he returns quickly following surgery for a broken finger, quarterback Jared Goff hardly inspired confidence this season that he can lead another Super Bowl run. He was not nearly as productive as in recent years, with 20 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions in 15 games. That touchdown-interception ratio of 1.54-1 ranked in the bottom third of the league.
X factor: Outside linebacker Leonard Floyd. While everyone focused on Donald this season, Floyd had a great year cleaning up on the edge. No matter what scheme opponents come up with for Donald, they still have to contend with this second playmaker on the outside.
First game: The Rams will face the third-seeded Seahawks in the wild-card round (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox). The Rams know how to beat these Seahawks. In a Week 10 victory, they harassed Russell Wilson into two interceptions and a fumble. But in a Week 16 loss, Wilson did not commit a turnover. The Rams are going to have a hard time on Saturday if Wilson plays a turnover-free game. The Rams are +4.5 underdogs.
7. Chicago Bears (8-8)
Super Bowl odds: +8000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 0.9%
Reason for hope: Stranger things have happened? It's difficult to generate a ton of optimism for a .500 team whose season would be over if the NFL hadn't expanded its postseason field for 2020. The best thing that can be said about the Bears is that they got better at moving the ball in the final month of the season. They ranked in the league's top 10 in yards per play over that period. Better play and/or luck in the red zone could help spur a playoff upset.
Reason for concern: The biggest concern about the Bears' trip to the playoffs is that it will influence their long-term decision-making. In the big picture, it's hard to make the argument for bringing back quarterback Mitch Trubisky. He was in fact the starting quarterback of a playoff team, but short of a run to the Super Bowl, nothing really should change the team's assessment of his future.
X factor: Running back David Montgomery. The Bears tailback averaged 95.3 yards per game over the final seven games of the season and is the best option for alleviating pressure on Chicago's passing game.
First game: The Bears will face the second-seeded Saints in the wild-card round (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS). Would you believe the Bears haven't played a road playoff game in 26 years? And they have a total of three road playoff victories in the Super Bowl era? There are a lot of reasons for that, and this season's team actually earned five of its eight wins on the road. But the history doesn't bode well for going into New Orleans and pulling off the upset. The Bears are +8.5 underdogs.
Fittingly, an unprecedented 2020 NFL season remained unsettled until the 256th and final regular-season game. Washington's win on Sunday night clinched the NFC East division title (with a losing record, no less) and locked in the 2020 playoff field.
The league expanded its postseason to 14 teams this season, meaning only the No. 1 seeds -- the Chiefs in the AFC and the Packers in the NFC -- will get first-round byes. The other 12 teams will compete in a six-game wild-card weekend that opens in just six days.
Our playoff primer previews those matchups and takes a broader look at what each team must do to reach Super Bowl LV next month in Tampa, Florida, along with their updated chances via Football Power Index (FPI). Odds and game lines are via Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.
AFC:
1. Chiefs
2. Bills vs. 7. Colts
3. Steelers vs. 6. Browns
4. Titans vs. 5. Ravens
NFC:
1. Packers
2. Saints vs. 7. Bears
3. Seahawks vs. 6. Rams
4. Washington vs. 5. Buccaneers
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Super Bowl odds: +180
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 51.1%
Reason for hope: Let's not dig too deep here. By some measures, quarterback Patrick Mahomes played better in 2020 than he did in either his 2018 MVP year or in leading the Chiefs to Super Bowl LIV last season. He set career highs in QBR (82.7), yards per game (316) and completion percentage (66.3%). Quarterbacks drive the playoffs, and no one in the AFC has a better one than the Chiefs.
Reason for concern: The Chiefs have struggled to put teams away in the second half, especially since a Week 8 thrashing of the Jets. Their ensuing seven games were all victories, but they have come by an average of 3.7 points, and none has been by more than six. Two required fourth-quarter comebacks. An optimist would argue the Chiefs are battle-tested for the kind of close games they could encounter in the postseason. On the other hand, top teams that struggle to put opponents away face a heightened risk of a postseason upset.
X factor: Running back Le'Veon Bell. Rookie starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with hip and ankle injuries, but even if he were not, Bell's veteran presence and flexibility would still be a significant boon for a playoff run. He has been used relatively sparingly since joining the Chiefs in Week 7, getting fewer than 10 touches in seven of nine games. But it wouldn't be shocking to see him and the Chiefs shift into a higher gear in the postseason.
First game: The Chiefs are the only AFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Colts.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 17.1%
Reason for hope: The Bills are rolling. After losing to the Chiefs in Week 6, they launched into a two-month run of near-perfect football. Their only loss during that period came after a Hail Mary by the Cardinals in Week 10. And while much of the public focused on the Chiefs, Packers and other front-running teams, the Bills led the league in scoring (30.7 points per game) between Weeks 7 and 16 as quarterback Josh Allen emerged as an MVP candidate. Strong regular-season performances don't always portend a long postseason run, but the Bills enter the playoffs knowing their winning formula -- and confident that it works.
Reason for concern: It was only a year ago that the Bills suffered the kind of playoff loss that can sting a franchise for years. After taking a 16-0 lead over the Texans, the Bills collapsed and lost 22-19 in overtime. The 2020 team appears far less capable of such a flop, but it would be naïve to think it won't be a lingering thought as the Bills prepare for their wild-card round game.
X factor: Wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The arrival of Diggs has factored into the Bills' success every bit as much as Allen's improvement, and it was a key reason Allen reached new heights in the first place. His presence will be particularly valuable in the playoffs, where he has already demonstrated the kind of competitiveness and nerve to make game-changing plays in the highest-pressure moments. (See: Minneapolis Miracle in the 2017 playoffs.) If the Bills need a play to win a game, they can count on Diggs helping Allen to get it done.
First game: The Bills will face the seventh-seeded Colts in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). They have a lot of advantages here, including playing in front of about 6,700 fans who can't wait to see a home playoff game. But this game could hinge on whether the Bills' defense, which ranked in the bottom third in rushing yards per attempt this season, can check the Colts' Jonathan Taylor. The Bills are -6.5 favorites.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +2000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 10.8%
Reason for hope: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has made 21 playoff starts, and the departure of Tom Brady to the NFC makes him the dean of AFC playoff quarterbacks. Wherever you stand on his arm strength and effectiveness, he'll bring a level of understanding that no other AFC team will have the benefit of having. The next-most experienced AFC quarterback is the Colts' Philip Rivers. That should bring some level of advantage to the Steelers.
Reason for concern: The Steelers have played one half of playoff-caliber football since the start of December. That came in the second half of their Week 16 victory over the Colts, when they overcame a 24-7 deficit to win 28-24. Otherwise, they barely beat a severely undermanned Ravens team in Week 12 and lost three consecutive game before ending with Sunday's meaningless matchup (for them) against the Browns. That's pretty much the opposite of how you would want to enter the postseason, in part because of the poor play and largely because of the deficiencies it exposed with Roethlisberger and the passing game in general.
X factor: Outside linebacker T.J. Watt. If there's any AFC defensive player who could dominate a playoff game, it's Watt. He not only led the league with 15 sacks this season but also ESPN's pass rush win rate (27.6%). He also ranks fourth in passes batted down at the line of scrimmage (five). In other words, he has been one of the NFL's most difficult players to block and one of its most consistent disruptors all season. Given the opportunity, Watt could wreck a playoff team on his own.
First game: The Steelers will face the sixth-seeded Browns in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). The Steelers beat the Browns by 31 points in the teams' first matchup this season, and their backups played the Browns pretty tough in Week 17. So despite the general dour nature of the past month in Pittsburgh, the Steelers should enter the playoffs with a lot of confidence about their wild-card matchup. The Steelers are -3.5 favorites.
4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +2800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 3.7%
Reason for hope: The Titans can follow the same approach that pushed them to the 2019 AFC Championship Game. They can pursue an early lead with the passing game -- which now boasts two big-play receivers in A.J. Brown and Corey Davis -- and then use tailback Derrick Henry to hold possession and maintain that lead. The Titans ranked among the NFL's top five teams in scoring for most of the season using a similar method.
Reason for concern: The pass defense stands out. The Titans finished the season ranked among the NFL's worst five teams in opposing QBR and were by far the worst of any playoff team. The biggest problem? They ranked at the bottom of the league in sacks for much of the season. If playoff-caliber quarterbacks are getting the ball off consistently and from a relatively clean pocket, it's going to be tough to win many games. The Titans will have to figure out a way to enhance their pass rush to make another playoff run.
X factor: Cornerback Malcolm Butler. It's not easy playing in the back end when the pass rush is largely failing to get home. But Butler is a player who could compensate, if not through tight coverage then through big plays. He led the team in interceptions and is the most experienced playoff defender on the roster. A few big plays can go a long way.
First game: The Titans will face the fifth-seeded Ravens in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). Can the Titans knock the Ravens from the playoffs for the second consecutive year? Perhaps. But we should definitely prepare for a ton of points. The Titans are averaging 34.6 points in their past seven games, and the Ravens are averaging 37.2 in their past five. The Titans are +4.5 underdogs.
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +1100
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 13.6%
Reason for hope: The Ravens have put it all together here in the final stretch, exactly what you would want to see heading into the postseason. In closing out the regular season with a five-game winning streak, coinciding with quarterback Lamar Jackson's return from the reserve/COVID-19 list, they've rediscovered the offensive formula that pushed them to the AFC's top seed in 2019. No one in the NFL has scored more points since Week 13, and only one team has scored more in the first quarter. Getting an early scoring advantage has been crucial to the Ravens' success throughout the Jackson era, and it rescued their 2020 season.
Reason for concern: It's still not clear if the Ravens can come back from an early deficit, the scenario that spelled their 2019 elimination to the Titans.
X factor: Kicker Justin Tucker. The Ravens' kicker will forever be their secret weapon, or perhaps their most unique weapon. It's an incredible end-game advantage for the Ravens to know that if they can just get him within 60 yards of the uprights, they have a genuine chance to win. The most recent example came in Week 14, when he drilled a 55-yard field goal to beat the Browns with 2 seconds left.
First game: The Ravens will face the fourth-seeded Titans in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). This game will match the NFL's top rushing team (Baltimore) against the NFL's rushing leader (Titans' Derrick Henry). According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it will be only the fifth such matchup in the Super Bowl era. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the team with the rushing leader has won the previous four. The Ravens are -4.5 favorites.
6. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +5000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.5%
Reason for hope: The Browns have a really well-rounded offense. Their passing and running games ranked in the NFL's top 10 in terms of QBR and yards per carry, respectively. That happens only when you have a really competent offensive line and plenty of playmakers. While the Browns, like most teams, would prefer to play with a lead, they're not as reliant on their running game as external perceptions might suggest.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Baker Mayfield is a volatile player and a playoff unknown. He has made unquestioned progress under coach Kevin Stefanski this season, but he hasn't been asked to carry the team as quarterbacks often need to in the playoffs. The Browns' defense allowed at least 30 points in seven games this season. Mayfield might well be ready for the challenge if the Browns get into a postseason shootout, but it's fair to wait until he performs under that kind of pressure before feeling confident in it.
X factor: Stefanski. In his first season with the Browns, Stefanski has done more than redirect Mayfield's career and offer up some clever playcalling and game plans. He has extended a canopy of calm around the most dysfunctional organization in the league. The Browns would be excused for overexcitement as they enter their first postseason since 2002, but Stefanski's presence gives them a good chance to meet the moment.
First game: The Browns will face the third-seeded Steelers in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). Back when the Browns were a consistent winner, their rivalry with the Steelers was legendary. The Steelers won by 31 points in Week 6, and their backups played the Browns tough in Week 17. The sides have met only twice in the postseason, with the Steelers winning both games, but there won't be a lot of film study needed for this game. The Browns are +3.5 underdogs.
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +3500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 2.2%
Reason for hope: Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a find, both as a runner and a receiver. His 45-yard playoff-clinching touchdown run in Week 17 was just the latest example of his value to this team. Not only did he give the Colts a commanding lead, but he helped them protect it and finished with 253 rushing yards. Taylor is young and presumably prepared for heavy postseason work.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Philip Rivers has mostly behaved himself this season, cutting his interception total in half from last season. But as good as he has been in 2020, do you trust him to not to give playoff opponents a few extra possessions and/or scuttle a few scoring drives? This will be in the back of many minds when the Colts take the field Saturday.
X factor: Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. One of the most impactful offseason acquisitions across the league, Buckner has proved to be an elite run-stopper and a consistent interior pass-rusher. When you think about players who could dominate a postseason game and single-handedly make the kind of plays that put a team over the hump, Buckner is the likeliest candidate for the Colts.
First game: The Colts will face the second-seed Bills in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). It's going to be wild to see if the Colts' defense can slow down the Bills' offense, which has been the league's most dominant in the second half of the season. The Colts' pass defense ranked among the NFL's top 10, based on QBR, for the majority of the season. The Colts are +6.5 underdogs.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 42.2%
Reason for hope: Not only do they have the best player in football this season -- quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- on their roster, but the Packers also have the most remarkable quarterback-receiver connection in the game. Rodgers completes one pass to wide receiver Davante Adams for roughly every four routes that Adams runs, by far the highest rate for any NFL receiver. That helps illustrate not only how well he gets open, but how often Rodgers throws him open. Good luck stopping them in the playoffs.
Reason for concern: The season-ending knee injury to All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is devastating and self-explanatory as a concern. So we should also note that the Packers' defense has often failed them in the playoffs during the Rodgers era, and it could be their downfall in 2020 as well. Through Week 16, their defensive QBR (66.1) and yards allowed per rush (4.64) each ranked No. 24 in the league, lower than all but one playoff team. Rodgers is capable of winning a shootout, but that hasn't been a formula for success in the Packers' recent forays into the postseason.
X factor: Running back Aaron Jones. Although he hasn't scored nearly as often as he did during his 16-touchdown performance in 2019, Jones remains a game-changing player who helps the Packers extend drives and keep their defense off the field. He has had a few injury nicks but should be ready for a normal workload in the playoffs.
First game: The Packers are the only NFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be Washington, the Buccaneers, the Rams or the Bears.
2. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.2%
Reason for hope: The Saints have one of the NFL's most well-rounded teams, and they've proved it after losing quarterback Drew Brees to injury for the second consecutive season. After going 5-0 with backup Teddy Bridgewater last season, they went 3-1 with backup Taysom Hill in 2020. When a team goes 8-1 without its starting quarterback, and the backup isn't a budding superstar, you sit up and take notice about the strength of the roster and coaching staff.
Reason for concern: The Saints have had some terrible luck in the playoffs over the past three years. The Minneapolis Miracle ended their 2017 season, and the pass interference no-call stopped their 2018 run. Last season, they came out flat against the Vikings in the wild-card round and lost. No team has a better regular-season winning percentage since the start of that run than the Saints, but the recent history of poor postseason outcomes must be considered.
Printable Nfl Super Bowl Bracket 2020
X factor: Wide receiver Michael Thomas. It has been a really weird season for the NFL's 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, from injuries to a disciplinary benching. In all, he played in only seven games and finished with a career-low 40 catches without a single touchdown. But the Saints believe he will be close to 100 percent healthy for their first playoff game, and it's tough to overestimate the impact of getting a fresh All-Pro receiver back on the field.
First game: The Saints will face the seventh-seeded Bears in the wild-card round (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS). The Saints spent the majority of the season ranked among the NFL's top teams in forcing turnovers. They'll have ample opportunities playing against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who tends to force the ball when he is in pressure situations. The Saints are -8.5 favorites.
3. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +1200
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8.9%
Reason for hope: Despite a perception that they were collapsing after a 5-0 start, the Seahawks' big picture never dramatically changed. They entered Week 17 on a 5-1 run and move into the playoffs as one of NFC teams with the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl. And in a season when NFL road teams had the highest winning percentage in decades, the Seahawks managed to go 7-1 at Lumen Field -- despite not having paid attendance for a single game this season.
Reason for concern: Among the major factors in the Seahawks' cooldown was a surprising run of mistakes from quarterback Russell Wilson. Since Week 7, he ranked among the league's five most likely players to commit a turnover. As a testament to his odd season, Wilson finished his ninth NFL season with career highs in touchdown passes and interceptions. Suffice it to say, the Seahawks need him at his best to make a deep playoff run.
X factor: Safety Jamal Adams. The Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for finding an out-of-the-box way for Adams to be an elite player in their scheme. Most teams blitz their safeties from time to time, but the Seahawks sent Adams enough that he set a record for most sacks in a season by a defensive back. It obviously suits his skill set and will be a factor that postseason opponents must, at the very least, spend unique time accounting for as they form their game plans.
Super Bowl 2020 Bracket Current
First game: The Seahawks will face the sixth-seeded Rams in the wild-card round (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox). Much of the pregame attention will be on whether Rams quarterback Jared Goff starts. But when the game begins, one of the keys will be how well Wilson handles the Rams' pass rush. He has handled pressure well this season, throwing 18 touchdown passes when under duress -- six more than any other quarterback has thrown since ESPN Stats & Information began tracking it in 2009. The Seahawks are -4.5 favorites.
4. Washington Football Team (7-9)
Super Bowl odds: +8000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.1%
Reason for hope: Really, it's the front four, with Chase Young, Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen making it difficult for opponents to maintain a clean pocket. A big part of the formula for a playoff run is disruptive line play, and Washington is among the most well-equipped in the league. Among other things, it ranked in the NFL's top 10 in contact against opposing quarterbacks. Tom Brady -- whom Washington will see on Saturday -- isn't the only quarterback who can get a little skittish if he's hit a bunch in the pocket.
Reason for concern: Despite all that, Washington was a seven-win team that beat only one team with a winning record: the Steelers in Week 13. Worse, it seems inordinately reliant on quarterback Alex Smith, whose mere presence in the lineup seems a miracle. There is just such a small margin of error for this team.
X factor: Wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Washington is the lowest-scoring team in the playoffs. McLaurin is one of the few big playmakers on its roster, and he could push it toward an upset if he can steal a few scores.
First game: Washington will face the fifth-seeded Buccaneers in the wild-card round (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). This game appears to be a mismatch on paper. But Washington is built precisely like some of the teams that have given Brady trouble in his career. The front four is the strength of the team, and we all know if you hit Brady a few times early, the game can be much different. Washington is a +7.5 underdog.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
AFC
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Super Bowl odds: +180
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 51.1%
Reason for hope: Let's not dig too deep here. By some measures, quarterback Patrick Mahomes played better in 2020 than he did in either his 2018 MVP year or in leading the Chiefs to Super Bowl LIV last season. He set career highs in QBR (82.7), yards per game (316) and completion percentage (66.3%). Quarterbacks drive the playoffs, and no one in the AFC has a better one than the Chiefs.
Reason for concern: The Chiefs have struggled to put teams away in the second half, especially since a Week 8 thrashing of the Jets. Their ensuing seven games were all victories, but they have come by an average of 3.7 points, and none has been by more than six. Two required fourth-quarter comebacks. An optimist would argue the Chiefs are battle-tested for the kind of close games they could encounter in the postseason. On the other hand, top teams that struggle to put opponents away face a heightened risk of a postseason upset.
X factor: Running back Le'Veon Bell. Rookie starter Clyde Edwards-Helaire is dealing with hip and ankle injuries, but even if he were not, Bell's veteran presence and flexibility would still be a significant boon for a playoff run. He has been used relatively sparingly since joining the Chiefs in Week 7, getting fewer than 10 touches in seven of nine games. But it wouldn't be shocking to see him and the Chiefs shift into a higher gear in the postseason.
First game: The Chiefs are the only AFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be the Titans, Ravens, Browns or Colts.
2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 17.1%
Reason for hope: The Bills are rolling. After losing to the Chiefs in Week 6, they launched into a two-month run of near-perfect football. Their only loss during that period came after a Hail Mary by the Cardinals in Week 10. And while much of the public focused on the Chiefs, Packers and other front-running teams, the Bills led the league in scoring (30.7 points per game) between Weeks 7 and 16 as quarterback Josh Allen emerged as an MVP candidate. Strong regular-season performances don't always portend a long postseason run, but the Bills enter the playoffs knowing their winning formula -- and confident that it works.
Reason for concern: It was only a year ago that the Bills suffered the kind of playoff loss that can sting a franchise for years. After taking a 16-0 lead over the Texans, the Bills collapsed and lost 22-19 in overtime. The 2020 team appears far less capable of such a flop, but it would be naïve to think it won't be a lingering thought as the Bills prepare for their wild-card round game.
X factor: Wide receiver Stefon Diggs. The arrival of Diggs has factored into the Bills' success every bit as much as Allen's improvement, and it was a key reason Allen reached new heights in the first place. His presence will be particularly valuable in the playoffs, where he has already demonstrated the kind of competitiveness and nerve to make game-changing plays in the highest-pressure moments. (See: Minneapolis Miracle in the 2017 playoffs.) If the Bills need a play to win a game, they can count on Diggs helping Allen to get it done.
First game: The Bills will face the seventh-seeded Colts in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). They have a lot of advantages here, including playing in front of about 6,700 fans who can't wait to see a home playoff game. But this game could hinge on whether the Bills' defense, which ranked in the bottom third in rushing yards per attempt this season, can check the Colts' Jonathan Taylor. The Bills are -6.5 favorites.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +2000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 10.8%
Reason for hope: Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has made 21 playoff starts, and the departure of Tom Brady to the NFC makes him the dean of AFC playoff quarterbacks. Wherever you stand on his arm strength and effectiveness, he'll bring a level of understanding that no other AFC team will have the benefit of having. The next-most experienced AFC quarterback is the Colts' Philip Rivers. That should bring some level of advantage to the Steelers.
Reason for concern: The Steelers have played one half of playoff-caliber football since the start of December. That came in the second half of their Week 16 victory over the Colts, when they overcame a 24-7 deficit to win 28-24. Otherwise, they barely beat a severely undermanned Ravens team in Week 12 and lost three consecutive game before ending with Sunday's meaningless matchup (for them) against the Browns. That's pretty much the opposite of how you would want to enter the postseason, in part because of the poor play and largely because of the deficiencies it exposed with Roethlisberger and the passing game in general.
X factor: Outside linebacker T.J. Watt. If there's any AFC defensive player who could dominate a playoff game, it's Watt. He not only led the league with 15 sacks this season but also ESPN's pass rush win rate (27.6%). He also ranks fourth in passes batted down at the line of scrimmage (five). In other words, he has been one of the NFL's most difficult players to block and one of its most consistent disruptors all season. Given the opportunity, Watt could wreck a playoff team on his own.
First game: The Steelers will face the sixth-seeded Browns in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). The Steelers beat the Browns by 31 points in the teams' first matchup this season, and their backups played the Browns pretty tough in Week 17. So despite the general dour nature of the past month in Pittsburgh, the Steelers should enter the playoffs with a lot of confidence about their wild-card matchup. The Steelers are -3.5 favorites.
4. Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +2800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 3.7%
Reason for hope: The Titans can follow the same approach that pushed them to the 2019 AFC Championship Game. They can pursue an early lead with the passing game -- which now boasts two big-play receivers in A.J. Brown and Corey Davis -- and then use tailback Derrick Henry to hold possession and maintain that lead. The Titans ranked among the NFL's top five teams in scoring for most of the season using a similar method.
Reason for concern: The pass defense stands out. The Titans finished the season ranked among the NFL's worst five teams in opposing QBR and were by far the worst of any playoff team. The biggest problem? They ranked at the bottom of the league in sacks for much of the season. If playoff-caliber quarterbacks are getting the ball off consistently and from a relatively clean pocket, it's going to be tough to win many games. The Titans will have to figure out a way to enhance their pass rush to make another playoff run.
X factor: Cornerback Malcolm Butler. It's not easy playing in the back end when the pass rush is largely failing to get home. But Butler is a player who could compensate, if not through tight coverage then through big plays. He led the team in interceptions and is the most experienced playoff defender on the roster. A few big plays can go a long way.
First game: The Titans will face the fifth-seeded Ravens in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). Can the Titans knock the Ravens from the playoffs for the second consecutive year? Perhaps. But we should definitely prepare for a ton of points. The Titans are averaging 34.6 points in their past seven games, and the Ravens are averaging 37.2 in their past five. The Titans are +4.5 underdogs.
5. Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +1100
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 13.6%
Reason for hope: The Ravens have put it all together here in the final stretch, exactly what you would want to see heading into the postseason. In closing out the regular season with a five-game winning streak, coinciding with quarterback Lamar Jackson's return from the reserve/COVID-19 list, they've rediscovered the offensive formula that pushed them to the AFC's top seed in 2019. No one in the NFL has scored more points since Week 13, and only one team has scored more in the first quarter. Getting an early scoring advantage has been crucial to the Ravens' success throughout the Jackson era, and it rescued their 2020 season.
Reason for concern: It's still not clear if the Ravens can come back from an early deficit, the scenario that spelled their 2019 elimination to the Titans.
X factor: Kicker Justin Tucker. The Ravens' kicker will forever be their secret weapon, or perhaps their most unique weapon. It's an incredible end-game advantage for the Ravens to know that if they can just get him within 60 yards of the uprights, they have a genuine chance to win. The most recent example came in Week 14, when he drilled a 55-yard field goal to beat the Browns with 2 seconds left.
First game: The Ravens will face the fourth-seeded Titans in the wild-card round (Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN). This game will match the NFL's top rushing team (Baltimore) against the NFL's rushing leader (Titans' Derrick Henry). According to ESPN Stats & Information research, it will be only the fifth such matchup in the Super Bowl era. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the team with the rushing leader has won the previous four. The Ravens are -4.5 favorites.
6. Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +5000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.5%
Reason for hope: The Browns have a really well-rounded offense. Their passing and running games ranked in the NFL's top 10 in terms of QBR and yards per carry, respectively. That happens only when you have a really competent offensive line and plenty of playmakers. While the Browns, like most teams, would prefer to play with a lead, they're not as reliant on their running game as external perceptions might suggest.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Baker Mayfield is a volatile player and a playoff unknown. He has made unquestioned progress under coach Kevin Stefanski this season, but he hasn't been asked to carry the team as quarterbacks often need to in the playoffs. The Browns' defense allowed at least 30 points in seven games this season. Mayfield might well be ready for the challenge if the Browns get into a postseason shootout, but it's fair to wait until he performs under that kind of pressure before feeling confident in it.
X factor: Stefanski. In his first season with the Browns, Stefanski has done more than redirect Mayfield's career and offer up some clever playcalling and game plans. He has extended a canopy of calm around the most dysfunctional organization in the league. The Browns would be excused for overexcitement as they enter their first postseason since 2002, but Stefanski's presence gives them a good chance to meet the moment.
First game: The Browns will face the third-seeded Steelers in the wild-card round (Sunday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). Back when the Browns were a consistent winner, their rivalry with the Steelers was legendary. The Steelers won by 31 points in Week 6, and their backups played the Browns tough in Week 17. The sides have met only twice in the postseason, with the Steelers winning both games, but there won't be a lot of film study needed for this game. The Browns are +3.5 underdogs.
7. Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +3500
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 2.2%
Reason for hope: Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a find, both as a runner and a receiver. His 45-yard playoff-clinching touchdown run in Week 17 was just the latest example of his value to this team. Not only did he give the Colts a commanding lead, but he helped them protect it and finished with 253 rushing yards. Taylor is young and presumably prepared for heavy postseason work.
Reason for concern: Quarterback Philip Rivers has mostly behaved himself this season, cutting his interception total in half from last season. But as good as he has been in 2020, do you trust him to not to give playoff opponents a few extra possessions and/or scuttle a few scoring drives? This will be in the back of many minds when the Colts take the field Saturday.
X factor: Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. One of the most impactful offseason acquisitions across the league, Buckner has proved to be an elite run-stopper and a consistent interior pass-rusher. When you think about players who could dominate a postseason game and single-handedly make the kind of plays that put a team over the hump, Buckner is the likeliest candidate for the Colts.
First game: The Colts will face the second-seed Bills in the wild-card round (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET on CBS). It's going to be wild to see if the Colts' defense can slow down the Bills' offense, which has been the league's most dominant in the second half of the season. The Colts' pass defense ranked among the NFL's top 10, based on QBR, for the majority of the season. The Colts are +6.5 underdogs.
NFC
1. Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Super Bowl odds: +450
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 42.2%
Reason for hope: Not only do they have the best player in football this season -- quarterback Aaron Rodgers -- on their roster, but the Packers also have the most remarkable quarterback-receiver connection in the game. Rodgers completes one pass to wide receiver Davante Adams for roughly every four routes that Adams runs, by far the highest rate for any NFL receiver. That helps illustrate not only how well he gets open, but how often Rodgers throws him open. Good luck stopping them in the playoffs.
Reason for concern: The season-ending knee injury to All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari is devastating and self-explanatory as a concern. So we should also note that the Packers' defense has often failed them in the playoffs during the Rodgers era, and it could be their downfall in 2020 as well. Through Week 16, their defensive QBR (66.1) and yards allowed per rush (4.64) each ranked No. 24 in the league, lower than all but one playoff team. Rodgers is capable of winning a shootout, but that hasn't been a formula for success in the Packers' recent forays into the postseason.
X factor: Running back Aaron Jones. Although he hasn't scored nearly as often as he did during his 16-touchdown performance in 2019, Jones remains a game-changing player who helps the Packers extend drives and keep their defense off the field. He has had a few injury nicks but should be ready for a normal workload in the playoffs.
First game: The Packers are the only NFC team to have a wild-card bye week, and they will face the lowest remaining seed in the divisional round. That could be Washington, the Buccaneers, the Rams or the Bears.
2. New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +750
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 27.2%
Reason for hope: The Saints have one of the NFL's most well-rounded teams, and they've proved it after losing quarterback Drew Brees to injury for the second consecutive season. After going 5-0 with backup Teddy Bridgewater last season, they went 3-1 with backup Taysom Hill in 2020. When a team goes 8-1 without its starting quarterback, and the backup isn't a budding superstar, you sit up and take notice about the strength of the roster and coaching staff.
Reason for concern: The Saints have had some terrible luck in the playoffs over the past three years. The Minneapolis Miracle ended their 2017 season, and the pass interference no-call stopped their 2018 run. Last season, they came out flat against the Vikings in the wild-card round and lost. No team has a better regular-season winning percentage since the start of that run than the Saints, but the recent history of poor postseason outcomes must be considered.
Printable Nfl Super Bowl Bracket 2020
X factor: Wide receiver Michael Thomas. It has been a really weird season for the NFL's 2019 Offensive Player of the Year, from injuries to a disciplinary benching. In all, he played in only seven games and finished with a career-low 40 catches without a single touchdown. But the Saints believe he will be close to 100 percent healthy for their first playoff game, and it's tough to overestimate the impact of getting a fresh All-Pro receiver back on the field.
First game: The Saints will face the seventh-seeded Bears in the wild-card round (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS). The Saints spent the majority of the season ranked among the NFL's top teams in forcing turnovers. They'll have ample opportunities playing against Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky, who tends to force the ball when he is in pressure situations. The Saints are -8.5 favorites.
3. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Super Bowl odds: +1200
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 8.9%
Reason for hope: Despite a perception that they were collapsing after a 5-0 start, the Seahawks' big picture never dramatically changed. They entered Week 17 on a 5-1 run and move into the playoffs as one of NFC teams with the best chance to advance to the Super Bowl. And in a season when NFL road teams had the highest winning percentage in decades, the Seahawks managed to go 7-1 at Lumen Field -- despite not having paid attendance for a single game this season.
Reason for concern: Among the major factors in the Seahawks' cooldown was a surprising run of mistakes from quarterback Russell Wilson. Since Week 7, he ranked among the league's five most likely players to commit a turnover. As a testament to his odd season, Wilson finished his ninth NFL season with career highs in touchdown passes and interceptions. Suffice it to say, the Seahawks need him at his best to make a deep playoff run.
X factor: Safety Jamal Adams. The Seahawks deserve a ton of credit for finding an out-of-the-box way for Adams to be an elite player in their scheme. Most teams blitz their safeties from time to time, but the Seahawks sent Adams enough that he set a record for most sacks in a season by a defensive back. It obviously suits his skill set and will be a factor that postseason opponents must, at the very least, spend unique time accounting for as they form their game plans.
Super Bowl 2020 Bracket Current
First game: The Seahawks will face the sixth-seeded Rams in the wild-card round (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox). Much of the pregame attention will be on whether Rams quarterback Jared Goff starts. But when the game begins, one of the keys will be how well Wilson handles the Rams' pass rush. He has handled pressure well this season, throwing 18 touchdown passes when under duress -- six more than any other quarterback has thrown since ESPN Stats & Information began tracking it in 2009. The Seahawks are -4.5 favorites.
4. Washington Football Team (7-9)
Super Bowl odds: +8000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 1.1%
Reason for hope: Really, it's the front four, with Chase Young, Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen making it difficult for opponents to maintain a clean pocket. A big part of the formula for a playoff run is disruptive line play, and Washington is among the most well-equipped in the league. Among other things, it ranked in the NFL's top 10 in contact against opposing quarterbacks. Tom Brady -- whom Washington will see on Saturday -- isn't the only quarterback who can get a little skittish if he's hit a bunch in the pocket.
Reason for concern: Despite all that, Washington was a seven-win team that beat only one team with a winning record: the Steelers in Week 13. Worse, it seems inordinately reliant on quarterback Alex Smith, whose mere presence in the lineup seems a miracle. There is just such a small margin of error for this team.
X factor: Wide receiver Terry McLaurin. Washington is the lowest-scoring team in the playoffs. McLaurin is one of the few big playmakers on its roster, and he could push it toward an upset if he can steal a few scores.
First game: Washington will face the fifth-seeded Buccaneers in the wild-card round (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). This game appears to be a mismatch on paper. But Washington is built precisely like some of the teams that have given Brady trouble in his career. The front four is the strength of the team, and we all know if you hit Brady a few times early, the game can be much different. Washington is a +7.5 underdog.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Super Bowl odds: +1100
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 15.7%
Reason for hope: Their quarterback has guided his teams to 30 playoff wins in his career, nearly twice as many as any other QB in NFL history. Tom Brady has also won six Super Bowls. That experience seems pretty important for a franchise that is making its first playoff appearance in 13 years and doesn't have much institutional knowledge. And by the way, Brady closed out the regular season on a high note. During the Buccaneers' 3-0 performance in Weeks 14-16, he ranked fourth in the league in QBR (84.2) and first in passing yards (934). He also tied for first with eight touchdown passes.
Reason for concern: More often than not, the Buccaneers' defense has been the leverage point between winning and losing this season. Through 16 weeks, it ranked No. 7 in the NFL by allowing 21.9 points per game. But that broke down to an average of 29.2 points per game in losses and 18.2 points per game in victories. Which defense will show up in the playoffs?
Super Bowl Bracket 2020
X factor: Defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. The Buccaneers' defense is stacked with veterans who have been around the block, including linebacker Lavonte David and defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh and William Gholston. But if anyone can muster the vitality to take over a playoff game or make the handful of big plays that can influence the outcome, it's Pierre-Paul. He has been a pass-rushing, fumble-causing, interception-grabbing machine this season.
First game: The Buccaneers will face fourth-seeded Washington in the wild-card round (Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET on NBC). Brady will have to deal with the type of defense that has given him fits in previous trips to the playoffs. Washington's defensive front has a chance to knock him off balance. The Bucs are -7.5 favorites.
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Super Bowl odds: +2800
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 4.0%
Reason for hope: The Rams' defense has carried them for much of the season and is difficult to attack, with the league's most unblockable player up front (defensive tackle Aaron Donald) and one of its few shutdown corners in the back end (Jalen Ramsey). The Rams had a top-three defense against both the run and pass, based on yards allowed per rush and QBR, respectively. You know the old saying about defense winning championships.
Reason for concern: Even if he returns quickly following surgery for a broken finger, quarterback Jared Goff hardly inspired confidence this season that he can lead another Super Bowl run. He was not nearly as productive as in recent years, with 20 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions in 15 games. That touchdown-interception ratio of 1.54-1 ranked in the bottom third of the league.
X factor: Outside linebacker Leonard Floyd. While everyone focused on Donald this season, Floyd had a great year cleaning up on the edge. No matter what scheme opponents come up with for Donald, they still have to contend with this second playmaker on the outside.
First game: The Rams will face the third-seeded Seahawks in the wild-card round (Saturday, 4:40 p.m. ET on Fox). The Rams know how to beat these Seahawks. In a Week 10 victory, they harassed Russell Wilson into two interceptions and a fumble. But in a Week 16 loss, Wilson did not commit a turnover. The Rams are going to have a hard time on Saturday if Wilson plays a turnover-free game. The Rams are +4.5 underdogs.
7. Chicago Bears (8-8)
Super Bowl odds: +8000
FPI chance to make Super Bowl: 0.9%
Reason for hope: Stranger things have happened? It's difficult to generate a ton of optimism for a .500 team whose season would be over if the NFL hadn't expanded its postseason field for 2020. The best thing that can be said about the Bears is that they got better at moving the ball in the final month of the season. They ranked in the league's top 10 in yards per play over that period. Better play and/or luck in the red zone could help spur a playoff upset.
Reason for concern: The biggest concern about the Bears' trip to the playoffs is that it will influence their long-term decision-making. In the big picture, it's hard to make the argument for bringing back quarterback Mitch Trubisky. He was in fact the starting quarterback of a playoff team, but short of a run to the Super Bowl, nothing really should change the team's assessment of his future.
X factor: Running back David Montgomery. The Bears tailback averaged 95.3 yards per game over the final seven games of the season and is the best option for alleviating pressure on Chicago's passing game.
Super Bowl Bracket Printable
First game: The Bears will face the second-seeded Saints in the wild-card round (Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET on CBS). Would you believe the Bears haven't played a road playoff game in 26 years? And they have a total of three road playoff victories in the Super Bowl era? There are a lot of reasons for that, and this season's team actually earned five of its eight wins on the road. But the history doesn't bode well for going into New Orleans and pulling off the upset. The Bears are +8.5 underdogs.
